Worry as just one of 42 indicators on track to achieve 2030 climate goals
The State of Climate Action 2023 report reveals a stark reality in national climate action plans (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs).
Despite heightened efforts by some nations, it shows a crucial gap in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius per the Paris Agreement.
Only one of the 42 indicators assessed is on track to meet the 2030 target. Six are “off track,” showing progress but at an inadequate pace; 24 are “well off track,” moving in the right direction but significantly below the necessary speed; six are heading in the wrong direction, requiring a U-turn in action; and five lack sufficient data for progress tracking.
Recommendations from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stress the necessity of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels.
The report, co-authored by Bezos Earth Fund, Climate Action Tracker, ClimateWorks Foundation, the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, and the World Resources Institute, shows that even with the latest available NDCs, emissions may increase by about 8.8 per cent by 2030.
Despite concerning overall trends, the report highlights the positive momentum in EV adoption, with sales tripling since 2020. This success demonstrates the potential for transformative change, which the President and CEO of the ClimateWorks Foundation, Helen Mountford, emphasises can be achieved through a concerted effort.
Published under Systems Change Lab, the report also notes the growth in countries mandating climate-related disclosures, from five nations emitting 3 per cent of global greenhouse gases to 35 nations emitting 20 per cent of global greenhouse gases in 2022. Kenya is already seeing tremendous growth in the EV market, fuelled by government incentives and private investment, with efforts projected to greatly enhance EV usage in the coming years.
The report indicates troubling developments in deforestation and fossil fuel financing. Deforestation increased from 5.4 million hectares in 2021 to 5.8 million hectares in 2022, equivalent to losing an area larger than Croatia in a year.
Government financing for fossil fuels sharply increased in 2021, reaching the highest levels in nearly a decade.
Claire Fyson, lead author of the report, emphasises the need for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, stating, “At COP28, governments should agree to a fair and fast phase-out of fossil fuels.”
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President emphasises the urgency.
“There is simply no time left for delays,” he says. Dr Andrew Steer, President and CEO of the Bezos Earth Fund, acknowledges the critical situation but says that progress is not linear and positive tipping points are within reach if leaders choose hope over despair.
Simon Stiell, the Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, underscores the need for COP28 to mark a turning point, urging governments not only to agree on more decisive climate actions but also to outline precise strategies for their implementation.
He encourages leaders to leverage the recently released Global Stocktake at COP28 to lay the foundation for accelerated action.
Mr Stiell emphasises the need to rebuild trust in the Paris process and deliver on commitments, particularly in finance, as a catalyst for effective climate action and increased resilience.
Simultaneously, a second UN Climate Change report on long-term low-emission development strategies indicates a positive trajectory.
If fully implemented on time, countries aiming for net-zero emissions by mid-century could lower emissions by 63 per cent in 2050.
However, the report cautions that uncertainties in net-zero targets could postpone critical actions.